Bitcoin The recent price action was eerily similar to 2019, according to a prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowenwhich suggests that this pattern may soon change as market sentiment changes.
What happened: Cowen, known for his data-driven approach, pointed out in his latest stream that Bitcoin’s lower highs and struggle to stay above the bull market support range mirror the price action of 2019.
However, the analyst notes a growing discomfort with the 2019 comparison. “Part of me is finally starting to feel uncomfortable with the 2019 comparison,” as many who initially rejected the comparison are now accepting it, perhaps indicating that the trend needs to change.
Cowen suggests that Bitcoin’s future may depend on monetary policy rather than strict adherence to historical patterns. He speculates that it would take “about a 200 basis point rate cut” to pull Bitcoin out of its current downtrend. Polymarket data shows a 73 percent probability of a 25 basis point cut in September.
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Read also: Why does Bitcoin underperform gold? Analysts point out that they have “no significant correlation”
Why it is important: Cowen draws attention to other metrics, such as gold’s performance and USDT dominance, which have performed as he predicted at the beginning of the year. These factors feed into his overall market assessment.
Looking ahead, Cowen presents several scenarios. While he believes the market could remain “relatively dull” for several more months, he is open to changing his analysis as new data emerges. He warns of potential risks, including a worrying trend in unemployment rates. In the week ending August 30, 231,000 initial jobless claims were filed, compared to expectations of 232,000.
What’s next: Bitcoin’s impact as an institutional asset class is expected to be examined in detail at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19.
Read more:
- Report: Number of Bitcoin millionaires rose by 111% last year amid crypto bull run
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