Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts wet, mild winter, but meteorologists question forecast

The Bay Area is in for a wet and mild winter – if the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s prediction comes true.

But predicting the climate for a coming winter is “complicated” in reality, says meteorologist Jan Null, and according to his comparisons, the almanac was correct only in about a third to a half of the cases.

“Whatever they use, it is unverifiable,” Null said.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which has been predicting weather for the United States since 1794, predicted temperate weather across the country for the coming winter, according to a press release.

Winter will be “warmer than normal” in most parts of California, with the coldest temperatures expected between mid-December and mid-/late January, the almanac’s weather forecast says.

These mild temperatures will be balanced by torrential rains and higher snowfalls in the mountains, the almanac reported. The stormiest times of the season will be mid-December, early January and mid- to late February.

The almanac claims to be able to predict the weather of any given season with an 80% success rate. The forecasts are based on historical comparisons of solar science, climatology and meteorology with today’s conditions to predict weather trends and events, the press release said. Over the years, the forecasts have incorporated the use of modern technology into the strategies used since the first edition was published in the 18th century.

“It’s no better than flipping a coin,” Null said, adding that he had gone back through actual weather patterns over the past few years and compared them with the almanac’s predictions.

The National Weather Service’s winter forecasts are trending toward a La Niña pattern, indicating cooler and wetter weather, said NWS meteorologist Crystal Oudit.

“We will soon have more confidence,” Oudit said, explaining that seasonal weather forecasts are becoming more accurate as the season approaches.

While institutions such as the NWS Climate Prediction Center produce more accurate seasonal forecasts, predicting long-term weather patterns is “not particularly precise,” Null added.

Other factors, such as climate change, are making seasonal weather increasingly difficult to predict, he said. Averages from 20 or 30 years ago are different from today’s averages, and “butterfly effects” in the weather can occur due to variables around the world.