Week 1 NFL action continues with a Friday night clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles from São Paulo, Brazil. The Eagles are 3-point favorites for the first NFL regular season game ever played in Brazil.
Green Bay and Philadelphia both made the playoffs last season, with the Packers falling in the divisional round and the Eagles suffering a surprise loss in the wild-card round. Friday’s game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET at Corinthians Arena.
Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Eagle -2.5
Money line: Packers (+135), Eagles (-155)
Over/Under: 48.5
Distribution of the first half: Eagles -1.5 (-110), Packers +1.5 (-110)
Packers total points: 23.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Eagles total points: 25.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
The props
Passing by
Jordan Love’s total passing yards: 251.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Jalen Hurts Total Pass Yards: 238.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
I love the total number of passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -135/Under +110)
Affects the total number of passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +110/Under -135)
Rush
Josh Jacobs total rushing yards: 65.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
I love the total rushing yards: 5.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Saquon Barkley, total rushing yards: 65.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Damages the total number of rushing yards: 37.5 (Under -115/Under -115)
Reception
Jayden Reed – Total receiving yards: 41.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Christian Watson’s total receiving yards: 37.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Romeo Doubs: Total Receiving Yards: 38.5 (Over -120/Under -115)
Luke Musgraves Total Receiving Yards: 24.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Jacobs total receiving yards: 16.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
AJ Brown: Total Receiving Yards: 71.5 (-Over 115/Under -115)
DeVonta Smith – Total Receiving Yards: 61.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Barkley’s total receiving yards: 15.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Favorite selection
Packers +2.5 (+105): It’s surprising that the Eagles are favored by almost a field goal over the Packers on a neutral field. This feels like a game Green Bay could win outright. Matt LaFleur is one of the best playmakers in the league, and while the Packers still have some questions on defense, they made solid improvements in the offseason and brought in Jeff Hafley as their new coordinator. Green Bay was 8-4 against the spread last season as an underdog, and the Eagles are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games as favorites. — Eric Moody
Saquon Barkley OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Barkley averaged 70.4 rushing yards per game behind a mediocre Giants offensive line. Now he’s running behind an Eagles OL that led the league in run block win rate last season. Even without Jason Kelce, the unit should remain dominant in 2024. Barkley rushed for 86 yards against the Packers last season, and the Eagles ran for an incredible 363 yards against Green Bay in their final game of the 2022 regular season. — Moody
Jayden Reed OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115): The Eagles’ defense allowed the third-most receiving yards last season and struggled against slot receivers in particular. They addressed the problem by selecting cornerbacks with their first two picks in the April draft, but the rookies will play their first game of the regular season against an impressive group of Packers receivers. With the Eagles likely playing zone defense to give their secondary some cushion, Reed should benefit. In 2023, he played in the slot 67% of the time and averaged 5.8 targets and 49.6 receiving yards per game. — Moody
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information
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Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has a career record of 20-7 ATS and 16-11 as an underdog, both of which are the best marks among coaches with at least 15 games as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. He has a record of 22-8 ATS as an underdog, including the playoffs (16-13 overall), including five straight games as an underdog.
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The Eagles finished last season 0-7 ATS, including playoffs (1-6 SU), the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL and just one game shy of the Eagles’ longest ATS losing streak in the Super Bowl era (eight in a row from 1994-95). They are 1-4 as a favorite over that span.
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Last year, all five international games were under the total. Since 2017, the unders record in international games is 17-8. The favorites are 16-9 ATS in international games during that time (4-1 ATS last season).
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The prime-time under numbers for the last two seasons are 70-42-1 (last season 35-23).
