Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah withdrew over the weekend after a heavy exchange of fire that briefly raised fears of a full-scale war.
But the decades-long conflict is far from over. Regional tensions related to the Gaza war are still high and a renewed escalation is probably only a matter of time.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah did not rule out another retaliatory strike for the killing of a senior commander in an Israeli airstrike last month. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “This is not the end of the story.”
The almost daily attacks and counterattacks along the border that began soon after the Gaza war broke out resumed on Monday. Israel attacked a Lebanese border village and a car, and Hezbollah said it had used an exploding drone to attack military surveillance equipment in northern Israel.
Here’s a look at what happened over the weekend:
Israel said around 100 warplanes launched airstrikes on thousands of rocket launchers in southern Lebanon to thwart an impending Hezbollah attack. Hezbollah said it fired hundreds of rockets and drones at military bases and missile defense sites in northern Israel and in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.
The Israeli strikes killed three militants in Lebanon, and the Israeli military said one soldier was killed either by fire from an interceptor or by shrapnel from one. It was all over by Sunday morning, and the rest of the day and night passed without incident.
Hezbollah described the attack as its first response to the targeted killing of one of its top commanders, Fouad Shukur, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut last month. Nasrallah said Hezbollah would “reserve the right to respond at a later date” if the results of Sunday’s attack on a military intelligence base near Tel Aviv were insufficient.
The Israeli military said its intelligence base near Tel Aviv was not hit. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesman, said an initial assessment showed “very little damage” in Israel.
Sunday’s exchange of fire did not lead to the long-feared war. The high firepower and low number of civilian casualties may allow both sides to claim some kind of victory and take a step back. But tensions remain high.
Shortly after the war in Gaza broke out, sparked by Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on October 7, Hezbollah began firing rockets and drones at Israel. Hezbollah and Hamas are allies and both receive support from Iran. Israel responded with air strikes.
Since October 8, Israeli attacks have killed more than 500 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters from Hezbollah and other armed groups, but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, attacks from Lebanon have killed 23 soldiers and 26 civilians. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the tense border.
Israel has promised to bring calm to the border so its citizens can return to their homes. It says it prefers to resolve the issue diplomatically through the US and other mediators, but will use force if necessary. Hezbollah officials have said the group does not seek a major war but is prepared for it.
In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a months-long war that left large parts of southern Beirut and southern Lebanon in ruins and displaced hundreds of thousands of people on both sides.
Everyone assumes that future wars will be far worse.
Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and is capable of hitting all parts of Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated drone fleet and is experimenting with precision missiles. A full-scale war could force hundreds of thousands of Israelis to flee, cripple the Israeli economy and force the army, which is still deployed in Gaza, to fight on two fronts.
Israel has vowed a devastating response to any major Hezbollah attack, which would likely destroy Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure and economy, which has been in crisis for years. Beirut’s southern suburbs, as well as towns and villages across southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s main strongholds are located, would likely be razed to the ground.
An Israeli ground offensive to eradicate Hezbollah could take years. The militant group is far more advanced and better armed than Hamas in Gaza, which is still resisting after 10 months of intense Israeli bombing and ground maneuvers.
A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah could escalate into a region-wide conflict.
Iran is a patron of Hezbollah, Hamas and other militant groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Iran has said it will carry out its own retaliatory strike for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an explosion in its capital last month for which Israel was widely blamed. Israel has not said whether it was involved.
Iran-backed groups have repeatedly attacked Israeli, U.S. and international targets throughout the region since the Gaza war began and may increase their attacks to relieve pressure on Hezbollah.
The US, meanwhile, has pledged iron-clad support to Israel and has deployed a large number of military assets to the Middle East in recent weeks to prevent a retaliatory strike by Iran or Hezbollah. The USS Abraham Lincoln recently joined another aircraft carrier battle group in the region.
A U.S.-led coalition helped shoot down hundreds of missiles and drones that Iran fired at Israel in April in response to an apparent Israeli attack in Syria that killed two Iranian generals. Both sides downplayed an apparent Israeli retaliation against Iran, and tensions gradually eased.
The United States, Egypt and Qatar have been trying for months to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of scores of hostages held by Hamas. Those efforts have gained urgency in recent weeks as diplomats see such a deal as the best hope for easing regional tensions.
An open war might have derailed the process, and Nasrallah said the attack was postponed in part to give negotiations a chance to succeed. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks along the border if there is a ceasefire in Gaza.
It is unclear whether Iran will halt or scale back its threatened retaliatory strike following Haniya’s killing, but Tehran probably does not want to be seen as disrupting a ceasefire agreement.
Despite intense diplomacy, major gaps remain, including Israel’s demand for a permanent presence along two strategic corridors in the Gaza Strip, a demand rejected by Hamas and Egypt. High-level talks were held in Egypt on Sunday, with no breakthrough in sight.
