SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team continues to monitor an area of unsettled weather off the coast of Texas and Louisiana.
This area has shown signs of slowly transitioning into a tropical system over the past 24 hours and has been designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center.
While the development potential is low at 90L, the main concern in the coming days is the threat of heavy rain and flooding along the northern Gulf Coast.
Rainy weather for South Mississippi
As the 90L wind slowly moves eastward along the Louisiana coast, there will be intermittent rain showers across southern Mississippi through Saturday.
Model trends continue to indicate that the highest rainfall amounts are expected directly along the coast and offshore, but a tiny shift in the 90L track to the north could result in the 5-10″ rainfall amount being shifted from over the water to the I-10 corridor.
Meanwhile, light east/northeast winds will continue through the weekend. Gusts may reach over 25 mph at times along the coast and over the water. This sustained wind will create an onshore current for Hancock County, resulting in higher than normal tides and causing minor flooding in the streets and low-lying areas along the coast.
There is still uncertainty about the overall course and development of 90L. It is important to keep checking to see if the prognosis changes.
Slow
Invest 90L is in no hurry to move. It is caught in weak steering currents and blocked between two high pressure ridges in the upper atmosphere. A high pressure area off the east coast is currently keeping 90L from moving too far east.
However, a low point in the jet stream is expected to drift south this weekend. This could send a cold front to the Gulf Coast, potentially steering 90L south or keeping it offshore and increasing wind shear – slowing development.
Tropical waves
The development of four more tropical waves is observed over the Caribbean and the eastern Atlantic.
The first wave in the Caribbean has little chance of developing as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of the week. Once the tropical wave crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, it is possible that it will form into a tropical system over the Bay of Campeche. It is too early to say if this will have a direct impact on the US, but it is worth keeping an eye on developments this weekend and early next week.
Two further waves east of the Lesser Antilles give no cause for concern.
A disturbance designated Invest 99L off the east coast of the United States has a low probability of occurring over the next 5-7 days.
Cold front at the weekend?
Model trends continue to indicate that a cold front could reach the Gulf Coast by the weekend, with lows around 15 degrees Celsius by Sunday morning and dry air.
Tropical dishes to go
It is too early to determine if the tropical waves in the Caribbean will impact the continental U.S. Once this system develops a center of circulation, it will be easier to predict and track. The best thing you can do now is just continue to monitor the latest updates on any developments or changes.
The climatological peak of the hurricane season will be reached within the next two weeks on September 10th. The next name on the list is Francine.
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