The Ukrainian armed forces still lack the means to conduct effective offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine. However, Kyiv is trying to “reformat” the war through its operation in Russia’s Kursk region.
This was stated by Andreas Umland, analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, in a commentary for Ukrinform.
“Ukraine tried to change the war discourse and reformat it, change the situation on the ground, change the entire discussion about the war. This is, of course, a risky strategy, but overall the operation is very successful,” said Umland.
In his opinion, the “preferred strategy” would simply be the liberation of Ukrainian territory, since Ukraine wants to recapture its territories and does not need Kursk, Belgorod or Bryansk. However, for offensives in Donbass or in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions or Crimea, Ukraine does not have enough weapons, since it needs much heavier weapons, air superiority, artillery, etc. At the same time, an intelligence assessment showed that the border in the Kursk region was not sufficiently protected, which prompted Ukraine to launch this attack with the resources and capabilities at its disposal.
Umland said the operation was even more successful than Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi had expected. It was hard to expect that the Ukrainian armed forces would take control of so much territory and that so many Russian conscripts, FSB agents, etc. would surrender. He said the capture of Russian conscripts and their subsequent exchange was “a very pleasant side effect” that was hardly the main goal.
The expert described the Kursk operation as a “strategy of desperation,” but stressed that it was the right course of action.
“Given the situation in July, it was probably the best thing that could have been done,” he said. The war of attrition is advantageous for Russia because it has more resources and can wage it for years. In addition, Russian industry has been switched to war mode. In addition, there is no guarantee that Ukraine will receive support in the future, said Umland.
“The ‘alternative strategy’ of the Ukrainian armed forces has proven that even under such conditions it is possible to be active and not just passive in this war,” the expert said.
This was not possible in the East last year due to the well-fortified front line. So Ukraine has used the situation to change the general discussion about the war – in Russia, in Ukraine, in the West and, importantly, in China, Brazil, India and other countries.
Referring to the “red lines” and the Kremlin’s previous threats to respond to an attack on Russian territory with a nuclear strike, Umland said that this was mere rhetoric aimed at a wider public, such as the German public, and was an attempt at intimidation.
“The mere fact that German tanks are on Russian territory should have led to World War III a long time ago. They should have hit Berlin with an atomic bomb a long time ago,” the analyst said.
As for the permission to attack Russian territory with German weapons, Umland noted that Germany has never declared any restrictions and currently the question of permission to attack targets deep inside Russia is not up for debate for the simple reason that Germany has not supplied Ukraine with long-range weapons – neither aircraft nor Taurus missiles. However, now that the Ukrainian armed forces are already on Russian territory, they are using German equipment in Russia, he said.
When asked about the prospects for the supply of long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Germany, Umland said that “the problem lies not only and not so much with Chancellor Scholz,” but with the public mood in Germany. In general, Germany understands the need to support Ukraine, but there are also fears that the supply of such powerful missiles could drag Germany into a war. The expert believes that this issue needs to be worked on, further discussions are needed, and that a change in public opinion could force Scholz to change his position.
As Ukrinform reported, on August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an offensive in the Russian Kursk region.
