Tips, predictions and best bets for Sunday’s games in the first week of the NFL
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KANSAS CITY, Missouri. — Sometimes it’s better to have a little luck.
For all the fireworks the Kansas City Chiefs set off Thursday night to officially kick off their quest to win a third straight game, they nearly blew it. They nearly left Arrowhead Stadium embarrassed.
But this is about Isaiah Likely’s right big toe.
Not only did the Chiefs win the AFC title rematch against the Baltimore Ravens to kick off the new NFL season, they also survived it in a photo finish when Likely’s apparent 10-yard touchdown catch with no time on the clock was nullified by a replay that was also shown in HD on the big screens.
Phew.
The emerging tight end probably caught Lamar Jackson’s high throw into the back of the end zone, but his toe – just barely – touched the chalk. Out. Game over. That’s all, folks.
“Definitely nerve-wracking,” Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said after the 27-20 thriller. “It looked good from my vantage point on the sidelines, but at first glance you could see the studs. They’re a great football team. I’m sure we’ll see them again at some point in the playoffs.”
The best teams, like the Chiefs, who twice defended the Super Bowl, often manage to produce the exciting results that make the NFL so entertaining.
The “not good enough” teams, a label the Ravens are still trying to shed, are learning lessons from this. Details, details.
“He should wear white cleats next time,” Mahomes said of Likely. “That’s my advice to him.”
Ouch.
Around the corner and down the hall from where Mahomes was speaking, Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP, still couldn’t believe the game’s final play — or was a little delusional. He didn’t believe what the replay showed all of America.
“I thought it was a touchdown,” Jackson said. “Still think it was a touchdown.”
Come on, MVP. You have to do better.
To the Ravens’ credit, they fought so hard. When it looked like the Chiefs were going to sweep them out of the stadium, on a night when Kansas City celebrated with another Super Bowl title banner – the franchise’s third in five years – they hung on so hard. Likely’s stunning 49-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter – he adjusted, got back on his route to catch a desperation pass as Jackson broke loose on the run, shook off Nick Bolton and charged down the sideline with a toe tap that led into the end zone – made it a three-point game.
After Kansas City scored a touchdown on a chunk play of its own – Mahomes to rookie Xavier Worthy, 35 yards – the Ravens responded with a field goal and a defensive stop to set up the last-minute drama.
Jackson (26 of 41 for 273 yards, 1 TD) threw a 38-yard pass to Rashod Bateman to get the Ravens to the 10-yard line with 18 seconds left, then missed passes to Likely and Zay Flowers, creating an all-or-nothing scenario.
Add in the other self-inflicted mistakes—Baltimore was penalized five times for illegal positioning, mostly because linemen were off the line of scrimmage—and the Ravens can’t help but feel like they wasted their best opportunity to steal the show from the Chiefs.
No, a win over the Chiefs in Week 1 wouldn’t be revenge for their messy, error-ridden loss in the AFC title game, but it certainly would have been good for the psyche. Now it’s fair to wonder if they can compete if the Ravens, as Mahomes predicted, face the Chiefs again in January.
“This is probably the worst game we’ll play all year,” said Likely, who had a game-high nine catches for 111 yards. “If this is their best game, then good luck.”
Wow. Cut that out and save it for the Chiefs bulletin board.
In the past, Jackson has referred to the Chiefs as his “kryptonite,” but he refused to admit it Thursday night.
“You are not my kryptonite,” he said.
Whatever the case, the Chiefs are the team that ended their season after the Ravens earned the No. 1 seed in 2023 with the AFC’s best record. And now they’re the team that had a big loss and some teachable moments to start the new year.
Jackson, who did Thursday night what he didn’t do in the AFC title game — ran out of danger when coverage and pressure demanded it and rushed for 122 yards, the game’s highest — doesn’t have to join the Superman story. But until the Ravens prove they can beat Mahomes and the Chiefs, those Super Bowl visions will be a mirage.
“We have to do what we have to do to win these games,” Jackson said.
Easier said than done.
And although the Chiefs struggled in the end, they showed why they could be more dangerous this time around.
Worthy, the rookie receiver drafted by the Chiefs in the first round after posting the fastest 40-yard dash time of all time (4.21 seconds) at the combine, scored a touchdown the first time he touched the football in his NFL debut. He ran, got the ball on a flip from Mahomes and then turned the corner for a 21-yard touchdown.
During the preseason, Worthy fumbled on a similar play. But practice makes perfect, he told offensive coordinator Matt Nagy during a walk-through session Thursday morning.
“I told Coach Nagy, ‘I think this play is going to score,'” Worthy said. “And it happened. So it’s incredible that it’s my first touchdown in the NFL.”
Worthy doesn’t have monster numbers (2 catches, 47 yards and a TD), but his mere presence – that lightning speed, that is – has helped create opportunities elsewhere. Rashee Rice – yes, the reckless driver who faces eight charges for his role in a high-speed crash on a Dallas freeway in late March – has accounted for the majority of his seven catches for 103 yards on slant and cross routes underneath, allowing him to pick up some yards after the catch. Mahomes, by the way, completed 20 of 28 passes for 291 yards, with the TD and a pick.
On the other hand, it wasn’t just the explosive plays that made an impression. The Chiefs showed a lot of grit, led by the incomparable Mahomes.
A prime example of this occurred early in the third quarter, when Mahomes dropped his shoulder and crashed into the pile that carried Isiah Pacheco into the end zone for a 1-yard touchdown, capping an 81-yard drive.
Mahomes did what?
He said the offense was struggling in the red zone and needed a touchdown. So, he said, “I put my body on the line.”
It was really nerve-wracking. It was a similar case to a game against the Indianapolis Colts in 2018, where a lineman collided with Mahomes, earning him a reprimand from coach Andy Reid for taking unnecessary risks.
“Coach Reid told me never to do that again,” Mahomes said. “Luckily we scored (this time) and I didn’t get hit by anyone else. So he’ll probably tell me never to do that again.”
It all happened on a night when the Chiefs got extremely lucky… and sent the Ravens back to school.
What might the Chiefs have learned about themselves?
“Nothing I didn’t already know,” insisted star defensive tackle Chris Jones. “That we’re greedy. We always fight.”
Necessary ingredients for the third victory in a row.
